Housing Inventory

Can mortgage rates keep falling? Job market data is key

10-year yield and mortgage rates  After the intense jobs week data, we ran straight into CPI and PPI inflation week, with a Fed meeting thrown in! I got one good crumb from the Fed meeting that made me smile: Powell finally admitted that the labor market isn’t tight anymore, which is a beneficial statement for rates down the line if the labor data gets weaker. I discuss this in this episode of...

2024 inventory growth challenges mortgage rate lockdown

The mortgage rate lockdown premise holds that very few people will list their homes when mortgage rates are this high, thus suppressing inventory. But 2024 has proven that theory wrong. 2024 has had healthy inventory growth despite mortgage rates above 7%. Also, for the third time this year, I have hit my target of weekly inventory growth between 11,000 -17,000, thus leading to more inventory than...

What will happen to home prices with more inventory?

Sales are increasing because supply is increasing. We’re slowly emerging from a supply-constrained market. Sales in 2023 were held back because there were not enough homes to buy. As sellers gently re-enter the market, more home sales can happen and are happening.  This flat demand with more supply means that there are less upward pressures on home-price appreciation this year than a year ago. We...

Mortgage rates hold steady at key level for now

Mortgage rates have risen recently but they could be much worse than they are today. As someone who doesn’t believe the Federal Reserve has pivoted and that the Fed enacted a COVID-19 housing policy to keep existing home sales depressed, It’s not shocking to me that rates are still this high, even though we had lower rates with a higher growth rate of inflation data. Mortgage rates and the...

Mortgage rates, inventory and demand rise as price cuts fall

Weekly housing inventory data Here is a look at the first week of the year: Weekly inventory change (Jan. 12-19): Inventory rose from 505,223 to 506,414 Same week last year (Jan. 13-20): Inventory fell from 473,406 to 472,852 The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194 The inventory peak for 2023 is 569,898 For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 933,746 Yes, the...

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